Recuperação em Risco

Os mercados continuam pessimistas sobre a recuperação mundial. S&P caiu 3,10% e o Ibovespa, 3,50%.  Dados da China vieram mais fracos que o esperado. O mesmo ocorreu com os dados de Confiança do Consumidor nos EUA. Sexta-feira será o dia mais crítico, quando saem os dados de criação de empregos nos EUA. Para piorar, o S&P 500 está próximo de um suporte muito importante, ao redor dos 1.040-1.050 pontos.

Visão sobre a crise

A TCW, gestora de fundos internacionais, soltou um relatório ontem dizendo que a crise européia só terá um fim com a efetiva reestruturação da dívida dos PIGS. Como os ajustes teriam de ser enormes e o Banco Central Europeu não permitiria uma saída por vias inflacionárias, a reestruturação parece ser mesmo a melhor saída. Resta saber como ficarão os bancos europeus numa situação dessas, já que eles são os grandes detentores da dívida destes países...

Bacen strikes again!

Com esta alta de 0,75% fica difícil não pensar que o Bacen/Meirelles tomaram uma decisão política na reunião anterior.

Europa de novo

O rebaixamento das dívidas da Grécia (para junk) e de Portugal pioraram o humor do mercado que já era ruim. Para piorar, o discurso de Bernanke sobre a insustentabilidade fiscal nos EUA também não ajudou.

Visão de Gringo sobre Brasil

Em um recente relatório da Wellington Management chamado "Emerging Markets 2010: The Search for Standouts" achei interessante a visão sobre o Brasil. Eles não esperam mudanças abruptas com o novo presidente (não importa quem vença) e a parte central da política econômica (metas de inflação, câmbio flutuante e superávit) será mantida, as diferenças em relação a Lula serão mais a nível micro. As maiores oportunidades são os investimentos em infra-estrutura (Copa e Jogos Olímpicos) e construção civil. Para que o mercado de bens de consumo continue crescendo é preciso investimentos em capacidade de produção e, por tabela, em infra-estrutura. O Brasil tem sido beneficiado por 3 fatores: estrutura macroeconômica mais estável, pragmatismo e continuidade política, além de altas taxas de crescimento e de retorno sobre o capital das empresas brasileiras.

Melhores práticas

Duo to draw up best practice for hedge funds

By Anuj Gangahar in New York

FT.com

Two of the highest profile figures in asset management were on Tuesday appointed to spearhead the drawing up of guidelines for best practices for hedge funds.

The appointments, by the president's working group on financial markets, are part of efforts by Hank Paulson, Treasury secretary, to formulate a private sector-led response to concerns about the activities of hedge funds and avoid potentially draconian regulations.

Russell Read, chief investment officer of Calpers, regarded as one of the most influential jobs in US capital markets, will chair a committee of investors, while Eric Mindich, the chief executive officer of hedge fund Eton Park, will chair an asset managers' committee.

The investors committee will include representatives from labour organisations, endowments, foundations, corporate and public pension funds and investment consultants.

Other members of the committees will include Daniel Och, head of Och Ziff Capital Management, William von Mueffling, the former star Lazard hedge fund manager who now runs Cantillon Capital, and James Chanos of Kynikos Associates.

The question of how best to regulate hedge funds has dogged US regulators for years.

A law requiring funds to register with the US Securities and Exchange Commission was thrown out by the courts, and politicians have debated various proposals as to the best ways to oversee the industry.

Mr Paulson launched a review of the US financial regulatory structure in June, and said the government would release a blueprint for its overhaul by early next year.

On Tuesday the president's working group was encouraging market participants "to move beyond the status quo" as they worked to strengthen market discipline.

Hedge funds have featured heavily during the recent market turmoil as many were accused of adding to volatility.

Anxiety among investors seems to centre on the lack of transparency of hedge funds' trading positions. Many hedge funds move in and out of positions extremely quickly, often using computer programmes and trading algorithms, making it difficult for investors to track their money.

Quantitative hedge funds were among the worst affected at the height of market volatility in August, although many have since recovered losses.

Copyright The Financial Times Ltd. All rights reserved.

 

Performance do Man Group

Man emerges unscathed from turmoil

By James Mackintosh in London

Published: September 25 2007 08:37 | Last updated: September 25 2007 18:10

Man Group came through this summer's market turmoil almost unscathed as the listed hedge fund manager increased sales and fees and predicted a 10 per cent rise in earnings for its first half.

Man reported assets under management of $68bn, up by $1bn since the end of June in spite of poor performance across its suite of funds.

The results are likely to calm concerns that investors might flee hedge funds in the wake of high-profile disasters, including the collapse of two Bear Stearns funds and heavy losses at several Goldman Sachs quantitative funds.

Peter Clarke, chief executive, said: "These results demonstrate the resilience of Man's business."

Man's shares rose 11½p, or 2.2 per cent, to 534½p.

It saw a small increase in redemptions from its funds by private investors to $1.1bn during the three months that will end on September 30 compared with $1bn in the previous quarter, while withdrawals by institutional investors fell.

Many analysts had been concerned that the credit squeeze and the high-profile failures of some hedge funds could prompt redemptions, or a slowdown of sales – neither of which happened.

Sales of $7.8bn in the six months to September 30 were split almost equally between the two quarters, although there was a big pick-up in sales of products carrying a guarantee as volatility increased.

Rupak Ghose, analyst at Credit Suisse, said the recovery in equity markets should help Man's sales.

"Markets have bounced and sentiment has bounced and that should help them with asset-raising," he said.

Mr Clarke, responding to a question posted on the company's website, said Man's funds had been able to maintain access to credit lines from investment banks and that none of its structured funds had to cut back gearing.

He said equity markets "appear to be somewhat calmer, although there is still behind that a sense of caution, perhaps even danger, in the air".

Man's main AHL division, which uses computers to spot trends in futures markets, fell sharply at the end of July and was down even more in August, but has staged a partial recovery this month.

Man predicted net management fees for the six months would be up more than 15 per cent on the $452m of the same period last year.

It said it still planned to return $2.8bn, or $1.40 per share, to shareholders in cash before the end of December.

 

Doomsday

Artigo sobre a possibilidade de uma nova crise em hedge funds.

Saída lucrativa

A injeção de recursos no Global Equity Opportunities foi bastante lucrativa, como se pode ver neste artigo.