Outubro

Apesar de não ter ocorrido nenhuma crise durante o mês de Outubro, o mês não foi nada fácil para os fundos de investimentos, sendo que poucos conseguiram ficar acima do CDI. Lá fora não foi pior, como atesta este artigo da Reuters:

October could be worst for hedge funds since 2000
Mon Oct 31, 2005 10:29 AM ET
By Pratima Desai
LONDON, Oct 31 (Reuters) - Tumbling stock prices and a high-profile bankruptcy in the United States mean October is likely to be the worst month for hedge funds since the 2000 equities crash, industry participants say.
However, they do not expect any losses this month to trigger a mass investor exodus from hedge funds, the investment vehicles which some see as risky because they can use derivatives, short sell and borrow or leverage to take bigger positions.
Expectations are that average losses will be between 2 and 3 percent, which would be the highest since March and April 2000 when the technology bubble burst and hedge funds were left nursing losses of 2.1 and 4.6 percent respectively, according to Credit Suisse First Boston Tremont Index.
Others backed that view.
"I think the range of outcomes you'll see is funds being anywhere from up 5 percent to down 10 or 15 percent for the month," said Bill Maldonado, chief executive of HSBC Alternative Investments.
"I think the average return will definitely be negative and it's going to be minus 2 to 3 percent, something like that."
Gartmore hedge fund managers Roger Guy and Guillaume Rambourg wrote to their investors last week warning that October would not be a good month, according to a report in the Financial Times. Gartmore confirmed to Reuters that a letter had been sent to investors but declined further comment.
At the start of October, many hedge funds who trade equities were expecting the bull run of previous months to continue and added to their investments with leverage.
But they were thwarted almost immediately by large falls in stock prices around the world as worries emerged about higher inflation and interest rates.
Sentiment slipped further after U.S. auto-parts maker Delphi filed for bankruptcy and news broke of an investigation into hidden debts at New York-based derivatives dealer Refco.
RISK APPETITE
However, industry players do not expect one month of losses to prompt investors to pull capital from the industry, since most do not look at individual monthly returns and performance in the 10 months to end-October will still be positive.
"October will just be a month of giving back gains from September," said Omar Kodmani, senior executive director at hedge fund firm Permal Group in London. "But that's not going to set the alarm bells ringing for investors."
Hedge funds returned an average of 1.6 percent in September, according to CSFB/Tremont.
Worst-hit hedge funds are likely to include those in merger arbitrage. They typically adopt a strategy of selling stock of a bidding company and buying the target, on the expectation that the difference between the two will narrow.
Growing risk aversion has persuaded some bidders to put on hold or abandon takeover plans, while in some existing M&A situations the probability of a successful bid has dropped and spreads have widened, accelerating hedge fund losses.
"Delphi had a negative impact on the risk appetite of the market at large," said Justin Dew, senior hedge fund analyst at Standard & Poor's rating agency. "A number of other merger situations came more into question...some deals look slightly less probable and hedge fund performance has suffered."
The drop in crude oil prices has also caught out many hedge funds who had bet on a sustained rise above $70 a barrel, a level last seen in August.
The rise in U.S. Treasury bond yields because of growing expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve could raise benchmark interest rates another 1 percent to 4.75 percent has also hit many hedge funds who were long of Treasury bonds.
"But the reverse side of this is that there are some hedge funds who have been short of Treasury bonds for a long time and this may be their chance to exit the trade at a profit," one source said.
Hedge funds who trade the different elements of convertible bonds -- equity, bond and volatility -- are also expected to have done well in October, because stock market volatility has jumped and created more mispricing opportunities.